This week`s discussion focuses on several key player narratives in the NHL, as part of our regular Friday feature. Topics include:
- Eighth year could be key in Marner’s next deal
- Oilers must address goaltending this off-season
- Who will be the last player standing from the 2003 draft?
- Next season could be Evgeni Malkin’s last in Pittsburgh
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
It appears highly likely that Mitch Marner`s tenure with the Toronto Maple Leafs is concluding, unless something significant changes. This outcome likely benefits both the player and the team. The Maple Leafs require a substantial roster overhaul and a different approach, and although Marner is an elite player highly sought after by any club, this hasn`t led to the crucial playoff success in Toronto. Marner is justified in seeking a new environment, which is a standard part of the sports business.
However, this doesn`t rule out the possibility of the team and player collaborating to finalize Marner`s upcoming contract. Only Toronto has the ability to offer an eight-year extension, which could be a vital factor for the 28-year-old winger and his future team in reaching an agreement. Conceivably, Toronto could sign Marner to an eight-year contract and then trade him. One might wonder why both Marner and the Maple Leafs would cooperate at this stage. The reason is that this approach could ultimately benefit everyone involved.
What does Marner get out of an 8-year deal?
Recent speculation suggests Marner might consider a shorter contract, perhaps four years. Nevertheless, the maximum overall earnings for Marner on his next contract will almost certainly come from an eight-year term. While a seven-year deal might offer a higher average annual value (AAV), the total amount of money would likely be less than what an eight-year commitment provides.
Various figures are being discussed regarding Marner`s potential salary, with rumors indicating some teams are prepared to offer up to $14 million. This figure appears substantial, particularly compared to Mikko Rantanen`s recent eight-year, $12 million per year contract. However, other factors are relevant, including a team`s salary cap situation, state income taxes, and Marner`s rising market value, as he is widely considered the top player available in free agency.
For illustration, imagine Marner receives a seven-year offer worth $14 million annually from a team, totaling $98 million. If a team is willing to pay $14 million over seven years, it`s plausible another team would offer $13 million per year over eight years. An eight-year deal at $13 million AAV totals $104 million, representing a $6 million increase over the hypothetical seven-year contract. To reach $104 million over only seven years, a team would need to offer nearly $14.9 million annually, which is improbable.
While it`s suggested Marner could earn the difference later in his career, this isn`t guaranteed. A seven-year contract would end when he is 35. In the scenario above, he would need to earn at least $6 million in that final season to match the total value of an eight-year deal. Over seven years, much can change due to injuries, age-related decline, and other factors, making a $6 million contract at 35 uncertain and risky. Securing the maximum guaranteed earnings now, given his current age, is the most financially prudent approach; any future earnings would be a bonus.
What does Marner’s new team get?
For the team acquiring Marner, minimizing the average annual value (AAV) could be crucial, depending on their cap situation. Teams such as Anaheim and Chicago possess ample cap space and might be less concerned about the cap hit. However, a team like Vegas, which Marner is reportedly interested in, would face greater cap constraints. Marner would complement the Golden Knights well, given their strength at center and defense but relative weakness on the wing. While placing Alex Pietrangelo on Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) could alleviate cap issues, the situation would remain challenging without significant cap relief.
Teams with Stanley Cup aspirations, like Vegas, are typically operating close to the salary cap. An eighth year on Marner`s contract would help reduce the AAV, providing valuable cap flexibility. If Marner can achieve the same total earnings over eight years as seven, but with a lower yearly salary, this would greatly benefit a team like Vegas. The Golden Knights consistently seek innovative methods to improve their roster, making future flexibility, particularly approaching the trade deadline, a priority. Furthermore, a sign-and-trade deal finalized before July 1st would allow Vegas, or any acquiring team, to avoid competition and the risk of losing Marner once free agency begins.
Should Marner prioritize joining a contender with a strong chance of winning the Stanley Cup, a reduced AAV could be the determining factor in him signing with his desired team.
