After a dominant 7-2 victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, the Toronto Maple Leafs have climbed to the top of the Atlantic Division. They lead not just by overall points, but crucially by the second tiebreaker: Regulation/Overtime Wins (ROW), following Regulation Wins (RW) as the primary tiebreaker.
The Maple Leafs currently hold a comfortable lead in the ROW category, which could prove decisive if the points and RW standings remain tight.
Beyond these tiebreakers, playoff seeding is determined by total wins, then head-to-head points, and finally goal differential.
Below the top three teams in the division, it appears unlikely that the Ottawa Senators can overtake them, positioning Ottawa to remain in the Wild Card 1 spot. However, the race is far from settled, especially for the second wild card, which remains intensely competitive. A slight downturn could draw Ottawa back into the thick of this battle, potentially landing them in the second wild card position.
Currently, projections suggest the Maple Leafs have approximately a 40 percent chance of facing the Senators in the first round. The likelihood of playing the Tampa Bay Lightning is slightly less, around 35 percent, and the odds of drawing the Florida Panthers are closer to 20 percent. These figures are based on recent projections from Data Driven Hockey.
Given the high probability that Toronto`s first-round opponent will be one of these three teams, it`s worth discussing which matchup would be most favorable for the Maple Leafs. What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of facing each of these teams?
Let`s delve into each potential matchup:
Ottawa Senators
Despite differing opinions, particularly from Leafs commentator Sam McKee, it`s evident that among these three potential opponents, the Ottawa Senators are the team Toronto would ideally prefer to face in the first round. McKee`s apprehension stems from the potential embarrassment of losing a series to Ottawa, contrasting with the more accepted narrative of losing to Florida teams as underdogs.
Why the Leafs would favor this matchup: A significant factor is experience. The Senators` roster includes fewer players with Stanley Cup victories compared to the Panthers and Lightning, who have recent deep playoff runs. The Senators also have a slightly younger average roster age than their Florida counterparts.
Ottawa`s starting goalie, Linus Ullmark, has limited playoff experience with only 10 games and an .887 save percentage, alongside a 3-6 record. His performance can be inconsistent.
Further down the Senators` lineup, they are not exceptionally potent offensively, their overall team scoring is relatively low, and some of their defensemen are considered vulnerable. The Maple Leafs clearly hold an edge in top-tier talent and would be considered the favorites in this series.
Reasons for caution: Despite the advantages, there are potential pitfalls. Ullmark, while inconsistent, is capable of exceptional performances and could steal games, as he has demonstrated recently.
While the Senators` scoring might seem low, they rank second-to-last in the NHL in actual goals compared to expected goals, suggesting they have been unlucky with shooting percentages. They generate more scoring opportunities than reflected in their goal count, indicating a potential for increased offensive output. Prior to a recent slump, Ottawa was scoring four or more goals in a significant stretch of games in March. The acquisition of Dylan Cozens has also strengthened their top-six forward group.
Defensively, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are elite skaters, which could challenge the Leafs` team speed, as Toronto isn`t primarily built on outright pace. Sanderson, in particular, could pose difficulties for Toronto.
Lastly, the emotional aspect cannot be ignored. The Senators have revitalized their season and have a chance to compete in the playoffs against their biggest rival, marking Brady Tkachuk’s potential first NHL playoff experience. The team`s energy and enthusiasm would likely be very high. Tkachuk`s intensity, as seen at events like the 4 Nations, makes him a formidable opponent, guaranteeing a physically demanding series regardless of the outcome.
Final thought: Goaltending will likely be pivotal in this matchup. The Senators` anticipated high energy and aggressive play could lead to both scoring chances and defensive errors, placing significant pressure on both teams` goaltenders to make critical saves.
