Stuttgart Quarterfinal Preview: Top 5 Seeds in the Mix for Porsche Glory

All Top 5 seeds and five of the Top 6 players in the WTA rankings are set for Saturday`s quarterfinals at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix.

World No. 2 Iga Swiatek has the strongest record in Stuttgart. She has won 11 of 12 matches at this tournament, securing titles in 2022 and 2023, both times defeating Aryna Sabalenka in the final.

“I am definitely proud of my achievements here,” Swiatek told reporters. “It`s great to return and have these good memories, but it doesn`t affect what will happen in the future.”

“So, I need to focus on what`s ahead.”

Focus shouldn`t be an issue, although her upcoming quarterfinal against Jelena Ostapenko is noteworthy, as Ostapenko has historically been a difficult opponent for Swiatek.

Ostapenko holds a 5-0 career record against Swiatek. However, they have never played on clay, Swiatek`s preferred surface.

Here`s a preview of Saturday`s quarterfinals (note that there are no matches on Friday in Stuttgart due to Good Friday holiday):

No. 3 Jessica Pegula vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova

This match between two WTA 500 titleholders this year promises to be exciting, and the outcome is uncertain.

Pegula won the Charleston title a few weeks ago, while Alexandrova won in Linz in February. In their Thursday matches, Pegula defeated Magdalena Frech 6-1, 6-1, and Alexandrova defeated No. 6 seed Mirra Andreeva 6-3, 6-2.

They last played two weeks ago in the Charleston semifinals, where Pegula won 6-2, 2-6, 7-5.

“Who knows what will happen on Saturday?” Pegula told reporters. “We just played in Charleston. It was a tough match. I probably should have lost, but managed to win.”

“Every time I`ve played her recently, it`s been a real battle.”

Like Linz, Stuttgart is an indoor tournament, which is Alexandrova`s preferred environment. However, her Linz title was on a hard court, which suits her game better.

Alexandrova believes the key to her success is managing expectations. This approach helped her defeat Karolina Muchova in Linz and upset the highly-regarded 17-year-old Andreeva.

“When you don`t have high expectations for the match, it`s much easier,” Alexandrova explained. “You avoid extra pressure and can focus on dealing with the immediate challenges, even if things aren`t going perfectly.”

“It`s always easier that way.”

Head-to-head record: 2-2. Pegula has won both of their clay court matches, including the 2021 Rome round of 16 and the recent Charleston semifinal.

No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Swiatek has an impressive clay court record, winning 90 out of 101 career matches. However, she emphasizes that transitioning from hard courts to clay requires adjustment.

“It`s not like I can just play perfectly right away,” Swiatek said. “We play on hard courts for most of the year, so I still need time to adjust to clay.”

“But I definitely feel I`m in the right place.”

Swiatek looked strong in her Thursday match, defeating Jana Fett 6-2, 6-2.

However, Ostapenko, a challenging opponent, is next. She defeated No. 7 seed Emma Navarro 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 on Thursday, hitting 44 winners with only 21 unforced errors, typical of her aggressive style.

A key factor in the match against Swiatek will be break points. Ostapenko converted 6 of 9 break points against Navarro and saved 14 of 18 on her own serve.

Head-to-head record: 5-0 in favor of Ostapenko. Their last match was in the Doha semifinals in February, which Ostapenko won 6-3, 6-1.

Looking ahead, Ostapenko said, “I just need to do what I always do: play aggressively and stick to my game. I`m always ready for a battle against top players. And Swiatek is a great player.”

No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens

As the world No. 1, Sabalenka might be at a slight disadvantage as she has been waiting while Mertens has already played and won two challenging matches.

A bye, a withdrawal from Anastasia Potapova in the round of 16, and the Easter holiday delayed Sabalenka`s first match in Stuttgart. However, she has two factors in her favor: a strong head-to-head record against Mertens and her history at the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix, where she has an 11-4 record and has reached three finals.

“I lost three finals here against World No. 1s,” she explained. “So I thought, `Okay, I have to do it. I have to come back as World No. 1.` Maybe that`s the key.”

Mertens should be confident, having reached two finals this year, finishing as runner-up in Hobart and winning the title in Singapore. After defeating Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the first round, she beat No. 8 seed Diana Shnaider 6-2, 7-6(5).

Head-to-head record: 8-2 in favor of Sabalenka. Mertens won two of their first three matches in 2018 but has lost the last seven, and hasn`t won a set against Sabalenka since 2020 (0-12 in sets). (Sabalenka and Mertens have also won two Grand Slam doubles titles together: the 2019 US Open and the 2021 Australian Open.)

No. 4 Coco Gauff vs. No. 5 Jasmine Paolini

This is an excellent quarterfinal match featuring two top 6 players in the world.

After a bye, Gauff easily won her opening match against German lucky loser Ella Seidel 6-1, 6-1. Paolini defeated two German wild cards, Eva Lys and Jule Niemeier, to reach this stage.

Expect strong defensive play in this match. Their frequent practice sessions together will make their anticipation of each other`s shots even sharper.

“I think she`s an incredible mover,” Gauff said about Paolini, “and she has a really good forehand. Everyone knows Jasmine is a fighter. She never gives up. I`ve never seen her do that on court.”

“It`s going to be a tough match on Saturday, but I think it will be good preparation for Roland Garros for me.”

Paolini had similar praise for Gauff.

“Her ball is so powerful,” Paolini said. “I`m not sure what to expect, but I know I need to be aggressive and try to control the points.”

“But it won`t be easy because she serves well, moves well, and returns well. She`s a very complete player to me. I have to be present every point.”

Head-to-head record: 2-0 in favor of Gauff, with matches at the 2021 Adelaide round of 32 (three sets) and the 2023 Cincinnati quarterfinals. They have never played on clay.