OTTAWA — With a comfortable lead in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Ottawa Senators are focusing on finalizing their player lines and defensive pairings to maximize their chances in the first round of the playoffs. Statistical models predict a very high probability of their playoff appearance, making this the opportune moment to solidify the team`s optimal configuration.
In their recent victory against the Detroit Red Wings, coach Travis Green experimented with the forward lines. Brady Tkachuk was reunited with Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig, while Claude Giroux joined Tim Stutzle and Fabian Zetterlund. This new arrangement led to four five-on-five goals, addressing a scoring area that the Senators have been working to improve throughout the season, and which is crucial for playoff success.
Currently, the Senators are ranked low in the league for five-on-five goals per game compared to other playoff-bound teams. However, these recent line adjustments suggest a promising solution to unlock greater offensive output across the team.
The partnership between Zetterlund and Stutzle has shown significant promise. Their off-ice living arrangement may contribute to their on-ice chemistry, which became evident since they were first paired on March 20th against Colorado.
Together, they have effectively controlled the game`s flow, consistently outperforming opponents at five-on-five. They have significantly out-chanced their rivals and dominated in expected goals percentage during their time together on the ice, contributing to Ottawa`s early lead in Thursday`s game.
Although Tkachuk assisted on Stutzle`s goal in the same game, his time spent on the ice with Stutzle and Zetterlund was limited. Tkachuk`s influence is substantial on any line, and his presence is particularly valuable in boosting the Pinto-Greig line, thereby distributing Ottawa`s scoring potential more evenly.
The Tkachuk-Pinto-Greig line previously played together earlier in the season and proved effective during periods when other lines struggled to score. Statistically, this line combination boasts a strong expected goals share and demonstrated dominance in shot attempts against Detroit.
Meanwhile, the line of David Perron, Dylan Cozens, and Drake Batherson continues to perform exceptionally well, with Perron maintaining a high scoring rate in March. This line is arguably the Senators` top performing unit currently.
If Tkachuk continues to elevate the Pinto-Greig line and the Zetterlund-Stutzle-Giroux line maintains its momentum, the Senators will pose a significant scoring threat across multiple lines. This lineup configuration appears to be the optimal approach for Ottawa to address a persistent weakness and enhance their potential for a playoff upset.
Defensively, the coach`s decision to include Nikolas Mantinpalo in place of Travis Hamonic suggests the strongest defensive lineup for the playoffs.
Mantinpalo and Tyler Kleven performed reliably and unobtrusively against the Red Wings, reinforcing their status as potentially the best third defensive pairing for Ottawa. Statistical analysis indicates Mantinpalo`s superior performance in expected goals allowed per minute compared to Hamonic. The Kleven-Mantinpalo pairing has also demonstrated a better goals-against record compared to the Kleven-Hamonic pairing.
The data clearly indicates the improved effectiveness of the Mantinpalo-Kleven defensive partnership.
While the coach emphasizes flexibility and the possibility of line changes, the recent game strongly suggests that Ottawa has identified a specific lineup that maximizes both offensive and defensive capabilities.
Penalty-killing improvement
The Senators successfully neutralized five penalties early in Thursday’s game and capitalized with two goals shortly after returning to full strength.
Ottawa’s penalty kill unit displayed resilience, showing improvement recently after fluctuating performance throughout the season. Prior to the trade deadline, their penalty kill efficiency was ranked lower in the league, but it has since climbed to a significantly better ranking, contributing to the team`s improved win record. The team`s penalty kill has been particularly vulnerable on the right side, especially noticeable during games Nick Jensen missed.
Jensen and Thomas Chabot, as a defensive pair, have the best record in terms of fewest goals allowed per minute while penalty killing among Senators defense pairings.
With Jensen in the lineup since the trade deadline, Ottawa had an extended streak of successful penalty kills until a recent goal against. In contrast, during the games Jensen was absent, the team conceded a higher number of goals while shorthanded.
Struggling to hold leads becoming a concern
Previously highly successful at securing wins when leading after two periods, the Senators have recently shown a concerning trend. Despite holding leads in several recent games, they have been outscored and outshot in the subsequent third periods.
Although they managed to win most of these games, this emerging pattern of struggling to maintain leads late in games is a worrying development that needs immediate correction before facing top division opponents in the playoffs.
