The second major championship of the year, the 2025 PGA Championship, is scheduled to be held from Thursday through Sunday at Quail Hollow Club. As the tournament approaches, we gathered insights from our golf experts regarding their predictions for the winner, and consulted our betting experts for advice on where to find value in the wagering market. Below, we delve into the top contenders and offer further analysis for the upcoming championship.
Experts` Picks
Matt Barrie: Rory McIlroy. I believe players have their `run,` and Rory is in his right now. After achieving the career Grand Slam, he comes to a course where he has won four times. It`s his domain, and he will win again.
Tory Barron: Justin Thomas. Perhaps it`s recent performance bias, but JT appears ready to claim his third PGA Championship title. After breaking a nearly three-year winless streak with a playoff victory at the RBC Heritage in April and fresh off a second-place finish at the Truist Championship, he possesses the confidence (and the putting) to perform well at Quail Hollow – the site of his 2017 Wanamaker Trophy win. Disclaimer: If Brooks Koepka manages to win the one time I don`t pick him, I`m joining LIV.
Michael Collins: Scottie Scheffler. How many times will people underestimate the World No. 1? His calm demeanor is mistaken for a lack of killer instinct. The competitor within him will be highly motivated. But once again, they will be proven wrong.
Jeff Darlington: Justin Thomas. Something shifted for Thomas in October 2024. He finished tied for 2nd at the Zozo Championship and has returned to elite form since. He returns to the venue of his initial PGA Championship triumph… and this time, he will win again.
Michael Eaves: Rory McIlroy. Finally winning the Masters removed a significant burden from his shoulders. He might be playing the most relaxed golf of his career in almost a decade, and a free-swinging Rory is formidable to the competition. Furthermore, with four prior wins at Quail Hollow, he dominates that course. Are we ready for Grand Slam discussions?
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Rory McIlroy. Sometimes, if a choice seems too straightforward, the best action is just to make it. He put the Masters/Grand Slam pursuit behind him and has been the top golfer globally in 2025. Add a course where he has won four times, which rewards distance, and he is the undeniable pick.
Andy North: Shane Lowry. He has been playing exceptionally well, is a very strong driver of the ball, and hits excellent iron shots.
Mark Schlabach: Bryson DeChambeau. If success requires length off the tee, solid long-iron play, and consistent putting, I favor Bryson. He will be eager to demonstrate that his performance on Sunday at the Masters was an anomaly, and he recently won in Korea on the LIV Golf League. He has secured a top-six finish in four of the last five majors, including finishing second at the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club. He is set to add a Wanamaker Trophy to his two U.S. Open trophies.
Marty Smith: Rory McIlroy. He enters the PGA Championship having already won the two most significant tournaments played this year – the Players Championship and the Masters Tournament. Fourteen years of constant questions and pressure are gone. He possesses confidence in every aspect of his game and with every club. Mental, emotional, spiritual, and physical freedom.
Additionally, he returns to Quail Hollow, a course where he holds the lowest scoring average in PGA Tour history among 246 players with at least 20 rounds played. Oh, and he has triumphed at Quail four times.
Curtis Strange: Rory McIlroy over Scottie by 1. I always support the Masters Champion at the PGA so we can discuss the Grand Slam this year.
Paolo Uggetti: Rory McIlroy. Given Rory`s current form and his recent history at Quail Hollow, picking him as this week`s winner feels almost too obvious, but I cannot bring myself to choose anyone else. Perhaps we are getting swept up in the moment – he just showed how challenging it is to win one major, let alone two consecutively – but nothing about this week`s setup doesn`t seem perfectly suited for the player who has clearly been playing the best golf in the world this year.
Scott Van Pelt: Bryson DeChambeau. Quail Hollow is a spacious course, as the saying goes. This week, it is also expected to be quite wet. DeChambeau`s advantage in length will be amplified by these conditions, and I predict he will win.
Betting Roundtable
Who is your pick to win?
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +475 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +775 |
Tyler Fulghum, ESPN BET Live host: Xander Schauffele (+2000). It is difficult to avoid picking McIlroy or Scheffler, but the odds (+500 or worse) for both golfers are quite high. If I`m looking beyond those top two, I would consider Schauffele. Schauffele possesses the type of disciplined and comprehensive game needed to excel at a tournament like this, characterized by long distances and intense competition.
David Gordon, ESPN Research: Shane Lowry (+4500). A case can be made that Lowry should be considered among the top of the second tier of players, yet his odds do not fully reflect this. If it`s not Rory or Xander, I will take the player currently ranked third in strokes gained: tee to green, who has achieved top-six finishes in two of the past four PGA Championships.
Pamela Maldonado, betting analyst: Rory McIlroy (+475). I understand he recently won the Masters, but Quail Hollow is a different situation; it is his territory. The course suits his strengths – powerful drives and towering long irons – which is why McIlroy has won here four times. He is familiar with every aspect of the course, and his style of play is ideally suited for this layout. The price is low, but when McIlroy is at Quail, he is defending his dominance.
Who is your favorite bet to make the top 10?
Fulghum: Patrick Reed (+550). Aside from Bryson DeChambeau, LIV golfers are mostly out of the public eye. This provides value on these players in major championships, and Patrick Reed is another LIV golfer who has performed relatively well in majors since joining the league. He finished third at Augusta in April and tied for 2nd in 2017 when the PGA was last held at Quail Hollow.
Gordon: Bryson DeChambeau (+140). DeChambeau has recorded more top-five finishes (three) than any other player in PGA Championships since 2020. His six top-five finishes in majors since 2020 have occurred at different courses, demonstrating his capability to contend regardless of the course style. Length off the tee combined with shorter rough has benefited recent winners at Quail Hollow (such as McIlroy and Wyndham Clark), and while I believe Bryson is a strong candidate for an outright win or top-five finish, I`m choosing the safety of a top-10 bet.
Maldonado: Jon Rahm (+190). Rahm is long off the tee, accurate with his long irons, and does not shy away from a challenging course. Quail Hollow is designed for players who can handle long par 4s and the pressure of the `Green Mile,` two attributes Rahm possesses in abundance. Even on a less-than-perfect day, Rahm`s baseline performance can be higher than most players` best. Even when his putting is cold, he remains a threat because his approach shots consistently create good scoring opportunities.
What is your favorite Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy bet?
Fulghum: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). It is challenging to find an appealing plus-money bet associated with McIlroy, but I will take this one. McIlroy is not typically a fast starter in majors, but this is a course he dominates. Coming off the victory at Augusta, he could start quickly, freely, and comfortably here.
Gordon: McIlroy over Scheffler: tournament matchup (-110). Pamela and Tyler have already made the best arguments regarding McIlroy. While it seems intimidating to bet against a player who just equaled the PGA Tour`s 72-hole scoring record in his last start, McIlroy has the advantage in course knowledge, length, and putting.
Maldonado: McIlroy top-10 finish, Round 1 (+200). The most difficult task is complete. He has achieved the career Grand Slam. McIlroy arrives at Quail Hollow grounded, composed, and in control. Golf involves mental strength as much as skill, and he now has clarity and confidence. If he simply plays his natural game without forcing things, given his comfort level on this course, McIlroy`s mindset will be focused, and his game will be precise.
Who are your favorite long shots/value bets (odds 100-1 or longer)?
Fulghum: Tony Finau (+12500). Currently, there is nothing about Finau`s game that strongly suggests he will contend at this event, except for his significant distance off the tee. However, the odds are very appealing for a player of Finau`s talent level, and the PGA Championship, unlike the other three majors, is the one most likely to produce an unexpected first-time winner.
Gordon: Denny McCarthy (+17500). McCarthy tied for sixth at Quail Hollow last year and T-8 the year before, making him one of only three players with eight or more rounds of par or better at this course over the past two years (the others being Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood). McCarthy`s lack of distance off the tee is a concern, but he clearly compensates for it in other areas when he plays at Quail. His best finish of the season was T-5 at Torrey Pines, one of the longest courses on the tour, and I am taking a chance on his putting remaining exceptionally good.
Maldonado: Keith Mitchell (+11000). His recent form is intriguing. Over his last four tournaments, Mitchell has recorded five consecutive top-20 finishes, including T-7 at the Truist Championship last week, showing a strong upward trend of consistency. His ball striking has been solid, and he has been gaining strokes tee-to-green. He has also achieved two top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow previously, so +320 for a top-20 finish seems reasonable, with a small bet on +11000 for an outside chance.
Are there any other bets that stand out to you?
Gordon: Corey Conners to finish as low Canadian (+165). Conners has successfully won this market in four of the last five majors – with the only exception being last year`s Open Championship – and in six of the past eight majors overall. He was the low Canadian at the PGA Championship both times over that period. His five top-10 finishes on tour this season are surpassed only by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. He also finished T-13 and T-8 in the last two years at Quail Hollow.
Maldonado: Justin Thomas (-120) vs. Xander Schauffele. Thomas knows how to win at this course, and while Schauffele has the skills to contend, his approach game does not quite measure up. Thomas` iron play is stronger, giving him an advantage on a course that significantly rewards accurate iron shots. In a comparison of ball striking, JT`s consistency from tee to green makes the crucial difference.
