MADRID – World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka possesses a complete game and is continuously refining her skills with each match. Beyond her powerful strokes, her mental toughness under pressure is a quality that often goes underappreciated.
In the Mutua Madrid Open quarterfinals on Wednesday, Sabalenka faced a tough challenge from Marta Kostyuk in a match decided by two tense tiebreaks. Demonstrating resilience and exceptional play, Sabalenka secured a 7-6(4), 7-6(7) victory.
The second-set tiebreak was briefly paused due to rain. After the roof was closed, Sabalenka found herself trailing 5-4, but she managed to clinch the win with a powerful backhand winner down the line, saving one of three set points faced during that extra session.
Sabalenka, the final player to reach Thursday’s semifinals after a match lasting over two and a half hours, is set to play against No. 17 seed Elina Svitolina, who impressively defeated unseeded Moyuka Uchijima 6-2, 6-1.
The earlier semifinal on Thursday features No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek facing No. 4 seed Coco Gauff. Swiatek recovered after losing the first set to Madison Keys, ultimately winning 0-6, 6-3, 6-2. Gauff advanced by defeating 18-year-old Mirra Andreeva 7-5, 6-1.
The first set of the Sabalenka-Kostyuk quarterfinal was a high-quality battle lasting 85 minutes. Sabalenka saved nine out of ten break points before winning a tight tiebreak.
In that tiebreak, with the score at 3-all, Sabalenka won three consecutive points. After Kostyuk missed a forehand, Sabalenka used a successful strategy in the ad-court, serving wide and following with a powerful forehand down the line. Kostyuk saved a second set point, but Sabalenka converted her third opportunity when Kostyuk’s backhand landed in the net.
Following her win, Sabalenka told the crowd, “Every time I come here, I always hope I`m going to stay until the last stage.”
Tennis enthusiasts might anticipate a potential third consecutive Madrid final between the top two players, Sabalenka and Swiatek. If they meet, they would be the first players to contest a WTA 1000 (formerly Tier I) final three years in a row since the format was introduced 35 years ago.
Let`s preview tomorrow`s semifinal matchups:
No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka vs. No. 17 Elina Svitolina
The case for Sabalenka:
Sabalenka performs exceptionally well when under pressure. She leads the tour in break points saved this year, accumulating 141 before the Kostyuk match and adding 13 more during that encounter for a total of 154.
Despite Swiatek`s strong clay-court record, it`s notable that Sabalenka`s only two career clay titles have come in Madrid, where the conditions favor quicker points. Swiatek has one Madrid title.
Although Sabalenka appeared slightly flustered at times against Kostyuk, her strong desire to win this tournament was evident.
Her record in Madrid is outstanding at 21-4. This marks her sixth semifinal appearance of the season, following Brisbane, Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Stuttgart.
Furthermore, Svitolina has only defeated Sabalenka once in their five previous meetings.
“I think the end of both sets were pretty tough,” Sabalenka commented after her Thursday victory. “I think the whole match, I was handling myself because of the conditions. It wasn’t about tennis, it was just about the way you can handle yourself and the way you can focus on yourself. That’s what I mean by handling myself. Because I think in those conditions anyone can win, so it’s nothing about tennis.”
The case for Svitolina:
Elina Svitolina is currently enjoying her best clay-court run since returning after maternity leave, having won 11 consecutive matches on clay, all in straight sets. This impressive streak provides significant momentum.
While her head-to-head record against Sabalenka is 1-4, two of their three clay-court matches were decided in three sets.
“Played with Aryna a couple of times last year, had some tough battles,” Svitolina said before knowing her opponent. “Also losing from the two match points in Rome, that was a big fight out there on the court. So, yeah, it’s going to be a big challenge, doesn’t matter [which player] I will be facing tomorrow.”
Now 30, Svitolina is playing at a level not seen since her 15-match winning streak in 2017. She has the most wins on clay this year. Her latest victory was a dominant 6-2, 6-1 performance against Moyuka Uchijima, where she won 30 of 45 points on her serve and broke Uchijima five times.
Svitolina has a history of performing well against reigning World No. 1 players, holding a solid 7-7 record in such matches. Since 2000, only Serena and Venus Williams and Lindsay Davenport have recorded more wins against the top-ranked player.
Acknowledging her strong form, Svitolina is drawing confidence from her recent success.
“Keep winning, that’s what I’m hoping for,” she stated. “I have a tough challenge in the semifinal. I try to not focus too much on the numbers because sometimes they can be disturbing, but of course everyone and every conversation is mentioning that. I draw the confidence from all those statistics that I have.”
No. 2 Iga Swiatek vs. No. 4 Coco Gauff
The case for Swiatek:
Based on their history, the defending champion Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite in this matchup. She has won nine straight matches in Madrid and 15 of her last 16 here, with the only loss being to Sabalenka in the 2023 final.
While she has dropped a set in three of her four matches this week, which is unusual by her high standards, she has consistently found a way to win.
Swiatek also holds a commanding 11-3 head-to-head advantage over Gauff.
Their record on clay is 5-0 in favor of Swiatek, with all those matches played in Rome and Paris. It`s worth noting their first clay meeting in Rome four years ago, where 17-year-old Gauff put up a good fight, losing 7-6(3), 6-3. Since then, Gauff has not managed to win more than four games in a single set against Swiatek on clay.
Swiatek is known for dominating sets, but against Madison Keys in the quarterfinal, the roles were reversed in the first set (0-6). Swiatek remained composed, and Keys, who made only two unforced errors in the first set, accumulated 33 errors in the final two sets, while Swiatek kept her errors low with just 10 in those crucial frames.
As a four-time French Open champion, Swiatek is exceptionally comfortable and dangerous on this surface.
The case for Gauff:
Coco Gauff showed tenacity in her 7-5, 6-1 quarterfinal win over Mirra Andreeva, notably saving two set points in the opening frame.
Looking at their head-to-head differently, while Swiatek initially led 11-1, Gauff has won their last two encounters. Both victories came on hard courts – at the WTA Finals group stage and earlier this year at the United Cup in Australia.
When asked about the shift, Gauff cited a change in mindset.
“Just belief,” Gauff told reporters Wednesday. “In the beginning of our matchups, she was a top player, and I felt like I maybe kind of wrote myself off before the match even came. I don’t think about that head-to-head anymore. Now I just treat it as a new match, new opportunity each time.”
Although Gauff hasn`t beaten Swiatek on clay, their previous clay matches were in Paris and Rome, where the courts are significantly slower than in Madrid.
Gauff`s strong defense is a constant asset; she and Swiatek are arguably two of the best movers on the Hologic WTA Tour. Gauff has been working to improve the consistency of her forehand and serve with coach Wim Fissette. Against Andreeva, she won 15 of 16 points on her first serve in the second set and saved two of four break points overall. She also created 16 break point opportunities and converted five.
After losing the first set 6-0 in her opening match to Dayana Yastremska, Gauff has won eight consecutive sets, facing increasingly difficult opponents. Having turned 20 recently, she has developed the physical strength needed to compete effectively with Swiatek, as seen in their recent hard-court matches.
“I always feel like I have a good chance against anybody I play. I lost the first set this tournament, 6-0, and everybody was like, ‘Ooh, she’s going to lose next round.’” she said. “I’m going to expect her to play some great tennis and probably her best tennis, and I’ll try to match that by playing my best tennis.”
