Key Storylines for the PGA Championship: Scheffler vs. McIlroy, Potential Dark Horses, and More

By Mark Schlabach and Paolo Uggetti

The second major of the 2025 golf season, the PGA Championship, tees off this Thursday at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. With questions swirling – can Rory McIlroy secure back-to-back majors? Will Scottie Scheffler claim another major victory? What impact will Bryson DeChambeau and other LIV players have? We look at the key narratives heading into this week.

Who`s the favorite: World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or Masters Champion Rory McIlroy?

Mark Schlabach: While Scottie Scheffler holds a slight edge in betting odds and recently secured his first win of 2025, there`s a strong case to be made that Rory McIlroy is currently the sport`s top player. McIlroy boasts three tour wins this year, all in significant events (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Players Championship, Masters). His Masters victory marked his career Grand Slam completion.

McIlroy`s recent form and outstanding history at Quail Hollow Club, where he has won four times and finished runner-up once, position him as the player to beat this week. Scheffler, conversely, hasn`t competed in a stroke-play event here. His only appearance at Quail Hollow was during the 2022 Presidents Cup, where his performance was unremarkable, finishing with a 0-3-1 record.

Paolo Uggetti: I agree with Mark – Rory should be considered the favorite this week, and his current form is unmatched by anyone entering the tournament. It’s fascinating how quickly the dynamic at the top of the game can shift. Scheffler has been remarkably consistent this season, but his single win and failure to replicate last year`s dominant pace have essentially allowed McIlroy to reclaim the perception of being the world`s best player. It wouldn`t be surprising to see both players contending on Sunday, possibly even competing directly against each other for the title.

Aside from Scottie and Rory, who would you pick this week?

Mark Schlabach: Justin Thomas is playing some of the best golf of his career and previously won the PGA Championship held at Quail Hollow in 2017. JT ended a nearly three-year winless streak on tour by winning the RBC Heritage in a playoff in April. He also finished second at the Valspar Championship and tied for second at last week`s Truist Championship.

Thomas has a strong track record at Quail Hollow, consistently finishing in the top 26 in his appearances there. His statistics this season are impressive, ranking high in strokes gained: tee to green and approach play, along with solid putting numbers.

Paolo Uggetti: The course is being described as one of the longest in professional golf, featuring thick rough and soaked conditions from recent rain, emphasizing driving distance – and you`re not picking Bryson DeChambeau? Quail Hollow is set up to be a bomber`s paradise this year, and nobody drives it better than DeChambeau. Data Golf shows him gaining over two strokes with his driver, a full stroke ahead of the next best player. However, his game is not just about driving; DeChambeau has refined other aspects over the past few years, securing five top-10 finishes in the last nine majors. If he can perform as he did at Valhalla last year, he`ll undoubtedly be in contention.

What are your expectations for Xander Schauffele (the defending champion) this week?

Mark Schlabach: After being sidelined for over two months with a rib injury, Xander Schauffele`s game appears to be improving. He has posted four consecutive strong finishes, including a tie for eighth at the Masters and 11th at the Truist Championship.

While he ranks well in strokes gained: approach, his stats off the tee, around the green, and in putting are currently lower, likely due to lack of recent competition. However, the bottom line is Schauffele has won two of the last four majors and achieved seven top-10 finishes in the past nine. Additionally, he was runner-up in his last two starts at Quail Hollow.

Paolo Uggetti: Schauffele is currently a bit of a mystery in the sport. His baseline performance is so high that even when not in peak form, he consistently achieves top-20 finishes. Over his recent tournaments, his lowest finish was a tie for 18th. To be honest, I`m uncertain what to expect from Schauffele at Quail Hollow, but the fact that the defending champion (and two-time major winner) is somewhat flying under the radar is quite revealing.

Which LIV Golfers will you be watching most closely this week?

Mark Schlabach: Given the premium on driving distance at Quail Hollow, it`s hard not to keep a close eye on Bryson DeChambeau. He finished second at last year`s PGA Championship at Valhalla, narrowly missing out on the win. He also held an early lead in the final round of the Masters before finishing tied for fifth. Nobody drives the ball as far as DeChambeau, and if his iron play is sharper than it was at Augusta, he has a real chance to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.

Patrick Reed is another LIV player to watch, having finished third at the Masters and possessing a decent history at Quail Hollow.

Paolo Uggetti: Until he secures a top-10 finish at a major, my answer remains Joaquín Niemann. It`s becoming notable that a player consistently winning on the LIV Tour seems unable to perform at the highest level when competing against the world`s best in majors. Niemann clearly has the talent to win multiple majors, and Data Golf ranks him among the world`s top 10. So, why hasn`t this translated to success in the four biggest weeks of the year? This question continues to follow Niemann`s career, and this week presents another opportunity for him to break that pattern.

Any under-the-radar players to watch this week?

Mark Schlabach: With Sepp Straka`s second win this season, former University of Georgia golfers have now won five times in 22 PGA Tour events this season.

Another former Bulldog, Keith Mitchell, has shown promising form after struggling at the end of 2024. Mitchell has recorded five consecutive top-25 finishes, including a tie for second and a tie for seventh recently. He ranks highly in driving distance and strokes gained: tee to green and has two career top-10 finishes at Quail Hollow.

Canada`s Taylor Pendrith hasn`t been at his best recently but had three top-10 finishes earlier in the season. He`s another powerful driver and hits a lot of greens. While his short game hasn`t been a strength, if his putting improves this week, he could be a dark horse contender.

Paolo Uggetti: Here`s a two-for-one suggestion: watch out for the Højgaard twins, Nicolai and Rasmus. Both possess the length needed for this course and could quietly make a run. Among other promising young players, I`d include Michael Thorbjornsen; he has two top-5 finishes this season and has been playing very solid golf lately.

Finally, having watched Akshay Bhatia at the Players, it`s evident he has the game for major championship success. Perhaps at this point in his career, with his game strong but still developing, a venue like Quail Hollow could be the ideal place for his breakthrough.

How is Quail Hollow expected to play this week?

Mark Schlabach: Quail Hollow is one of the longest courses on the tour, measuring 7,626 yards. This makes it the fourth longest in PGA Championship history and the longest for a par-71 course. It`s likely to play even longer due to rain that has soaked the course, with more precipitation forecast. If conditions remain wet, there will be minimal roll on the fairways, placing an even greater emphasis on driving distance and precise long iron play.

Contenders will also need sharp short games, as missing greens will be common. During the 2017 PGA Championship here, eight greens were hit less than 50% of the time, with the first hole being hit only 33% of the time.

Players must navigate the challenging par 3s (three are over 200 yards), capitalize on the par 5s, and survive the difficult three-hole finishing stretch known as the `Green Mile.` In 2017, this closing stretch saw more double-bogeys or worse than birdies or better.