For those unfamiliar, a brief explanation of “Ice Tilt,” a metric from the NHL and AWS: It utilizes NHL EDGE technology in player jerseys to determine which team has territorial dominance. Essentially, it quantifies the often-mentioned but rarely defined concept of “momentum.”
You’ve likely heard phrases like “The ice was heavily tilted in Team X’s favor.” Without delving into the calculation specifics (more details available if interested), we can identify top teams in this metric. Ice Tilt tracks each player’s position, enabling the assessment of a team’s “Time with Tilt” in any game or across a season. This allows us to measure pressure intensity, rather than just puck location.
On Thursday night, the Toronto Maple Leafs face the Rangers in New York. Ice Tilt data highlights something that fans of both teams are aware of: this season differs from the last. In 2023-24, the Rangers secured the Presidents’ Trophy. While the Leafs didn’t accumulate significantly more points last year, they exerted greater control over their games and relied less on goaltending.
To illustrate the changes, the following shows the Ice Tilt standings for both teams last season. While the Rangers’ mid-pack position might be surprising, “mid-pack plus elite goaltending” apparently translated to substantial standings points.
The Leafs were just outside the top five. Examining other teams reveals correlations between Ice Tilt and success. Key observations:
• Stanley Cup champions Florida ranked third in “Time with Tilt” per game.
• Western Conference champions Oilers ranked second.
• Nine of the top 10 league teams averaged over 30 minutes of “Time with Tilt” per game, indicating play control.
• Eleven of 16 playoff teams controlled “Time with Tilt.” Among the five playoff teams with negative Tilt, only one progressed past Round 1, and none beyond Round 2.
Thus, the obvious conclusion: controlling play is beneficial. However, concerning for Leafs and Rangers fans is this season’s “Time with Tilt” graph, which is quite telling.
For the Leafs, this reflects a deliberate stylistic shift. They formerly prided themselves on puck possession, dictating play, and attacking offensively. Puck control was integral to their past defensive strategy.
This approach faltered in playoffs against similarly skilled opponents.
Under Craig Berube this year, they aim for a more north-south game, chipping pucks to avoid turnovers, which has reduced high-danger chances against per game. Sportlogiq data shows improvement from 18th to eighth in rushes against, supported by strong goaltending.
Coupled with improved forecheck chance creation (Toronto ranks fifth in the NHL), they still generate high-danger opportunities without extensive possession. This may explain why their metrics appear worse than the strategy’s actual effectiveness.
Playoff success against teams like Florida and Tampa Bay remains uncertain. However, given the ineffectiveness of Toronto’s prior strategy, a new approach might yield different outcomes.
Encouragingly, in Monday’s game against Calgary, the Leafs started strong, and their dump-and-chase tactic led to significant Time with Tilt. The Colorado game’s first period was less successful. This makes the Rangers game on Thursday a good opportunity for the Leafs, as the Rangers have been a bottom-10 team in first-period Time with Tilt this season.
The Leafs haven’t consistently started quickly either but have been slightly better than New York. A gentler start against the Rangers, after facing a strong Avalanche team, should benefit Toronto in finding their rhythm.
Ice Tilt also measures “time with significant tilt,” indicating sustained pressure deep in the opponent’s defensive zone (inside the D-zone for consecutive minutes, on average).
This is infrequent due to zone congestion, with top teams averaging only about a minute of “significant tilt” per game. The Leafs fare better here, ranking in the league’s top half with 0:54 seconds per period.
The “good” half of this graph reveals two insights: First, most teams here are not weak, suggesting the metric’s relevance (good teams achieve more significant Tilt). Second, trailing teams chasing games against prevent defenses may accumulate “significant tilt” time.
The ability to apply pressure even when opponents defend deep might indicate that Nashville and Pittsburgh are better than perceived, aligning with their roster talent. (Leafs’ higher ranking here could also stem from chasing games.)
Capitals and Kings are notably low. Perhaps they often protect leads, or their dominance is overstated by their records—interpret as you see fit.
Ultimately, Ice Tilt confirms a significant change in the Leafs’ gameplay this season, increasing defensive pressure. Leading up to the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, we will revisit Ice Tilt to assess if trade deadline acquisitions and lineup adjustments have improved their play control or if they will primarily rely on goaltending, shot-blocking, and resilience in Round 1.
