Wagering on golf can be a fascinating, frustrating, and thrilling challenge, much like facing a crucial short putt with friends observing. While there are numerous betting approaches for a tournament, simply picking potential outright winners without a strategy is likely to lead to financial difficulties.
This guide provides a systematic method for organizing your golf bets like an expert, ensuring you balance potential returns with risks to stay in contention for payouts throughout the final day.
When placing bets on golf, three crucial elements are frequently considered: how well a player suits the course, their recent performance, and their history at that particular venue.
-
Course suitability refers to how a golfer`s abilities match the course design – for instance, if it favors long hitters, requires extreme accuracy, or primarily tests putting skill.
-
Current performance involves examining recent tournament outcomes, player momentum, and confidence levels. A golfer who was hitting the ball superbly from tee to green last week is generally a more attractive bet than someone struggling with their swing.
-
Course history relates to a player`s comfort and past results at a venue, perhaps due to grass types or positive memories. The ideal scenario is when all three factors are favorable. However, successful betting is about finding value, and sometimes prioritizing one factor over others can provide an advantage.
Exploring Betting Opportunities
Betting on golf extends beyond simply selecting the champion. Many wager types are available, with varying levels of risk. Properly structuring your bets can allow you to secure payouts even if your pick to win doesn`t perform well. Below is an overview of common bet types:
Winner (Outright)
This is the standard bet on who will win the tournament. Due to the large number of players, odds for outright winners are often high, making them difficult to predict. Betting solely on outright winners can be exciting, but you`ll frequently face losing weekends, leaving your bankroll depleted like a ball in deep rough.
Placing in the Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20
These are considered safer bets, with Top 20 finishes offering the highest probability of success. The golfer only needs to finish within the specified range, not necessarily win. While a Top 20 bet at +120 might not seem exciting, consistently winning these smaller bets helps maintain your funds while you also place smaller wagers on potential winners.
A golfer with 30-1 odds to win has an implied probability of success around 3.2%. Contrast this with a Top 20 bet at +200, which has an implied probability of about 33%. This significant difference explains why it`s advisable to wager less on bets with long odds and more on those with higher probabilities.
Leader After Round One
This type of bet adds immediate excitement. Instead of waiting four days, you only need your chosen golfer to be leading after the first 18 holes. As odds for the first-round leader are frequently 20-1 or higher, these bets are typically made with smaller portions of your betting unit. Key factors include early tee times, favorable weather, and players known for aggressive scoring. If you believe a player could potentially win the entire event, it makes sense to wager a small amount on them starting strongly. A successful first-round leader bet can essentially cover the cost of your other bets for the tournament.
Player Matchups
While betting on the outright winner is like trying a risky shot directly at the flag, matchup bets are more conservative, similar to hitting safely to the center of the green. Here, you simply predict which of two golfers will finish better over a single round or the entire event. This offers a more predictable outcome. Betting on the full tournament matchup is generally preferred as it reflects performance over four days, reducing the randomness of a single round. Three-ball matchups, involving three players, are also an option; they offer higher odds but involve greater risk.
Proposition Bets and Major-Specific Wagers
Major championships offer a wide variety of unique and entertaining bets. Some are available every week, while others are exclusive to golf`s most prestigious events:
-
Best Finisher (e.g., Top American, Top European): Predicting the highest-ranked player from a particular nationality or region.
-
Hole-in-One Occurrence: A simple yes/no bet on whether an ace will happen. It`s always exciting and appealing.
-
Lowest/Highest Round Score: Betting on the lowest or highest single-round score posted during the tournament.
-
Make the Cut Parlay: Combining predictions for multiple players to successfully make the cut.
Building Your Betting Card and Managing Wager Amounts
Placing random bets without a plan and hoping for a big win is not a strategy; it`s a quick way to deplete your betting funds before the tournament even finishes. Furthermore, betting the same amount on every wager is inefficient, like trying to putt from the fairway.
A better approach is to base your betting card around a few selected players and use a mix of bet types to balance potential returns with risk. Given the significant variation in golf odds, the size of your wager should reflect the risk involved.
This strategy is effective because Top 20 bets offer consistency, resulting in more frequent wins that help maintain your bankroll. Bets on Top 10 and Top 5 finishes might use around 0.5 units, while outright winner bets, being harder to hit, could be smaller (e.g., 0.2 to 0.25 units). First-round leader bets carry higher risk but offer significant rewards, allowing for smaller bet sizes while providing a chance for a large payout. Distributing bets across various markets keeps you engaged throughout the tournament. Even if your chosen winner doesn`t perform, your Top 20 bet might still pay off. Remember, the longer the odds, the smaller your bet should be, reflecting the lower probability of success. Wagering too much on high-risk bets can quickly drain your funds during a series of losses.
If you choose to bet on several players (five or more) in a single event, ensure your total investment is managed carefully to avoid committing too much money to any one golfer. As you increase the number of players on your card, you should decrease the individual bet size for each to control your overall risk.
Key PGA Tour Events: The Majors and the `Fifth Major`
As with any form of betting, success in golf wagering requires discipline and should ideally serve to enhance your enjoyment of watching the sport. Golf betting can be challenging, and consistently picking outright winners is unrealistic. However, by strategically structuring your wagers, carefully managing risk, and diversifying your bets across various markets, you can improve your chances of profitability and maintain excitement throughout the tournament weekend.
U.S. Open: Scheduled for June 12-15 at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania.
The Open Championship: Taking place July 17-20 at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
PGA Championship: Won by Scottie Scheffler with a score of -11.
Masters Tournament: Won by Rory McIlroy at -11 after a playoff.
The Players Championship: Won by Rory McIlroy at -12 after a playoff.
Featuring one of the strongest fields, a substantial prize fund, and the iconic TPC Sawgrass venue, this event is widely considered the closest thing to a major championship. Although not officially designated as a major, its rich history, dramatic finishes, and the famous 17th hole island green make it a highlight of the golfing calendar.
Recommended Bets for the 2025 U.S. Open
Odds were current at the time of publication.
The U.S. Open, the third major of the PGA Tour season, is being held at Oakmont Golf Club. The course is anticipated to be extremely challenging, featuring dense, tall rough, tight fairways, incredibly fast greens, and a likely winning score slightly under par. It will severely test players` skills and mental strength.
Oakmont favors golfers who perform well under difficult conditions. Navigating the course is akin to playing chess during a storm. Success at Oakmont requires pinpoint accuracy from the tee, outstanding approach shots with mid to long irons, and masterful touch on its very fast, undulating greens.
Achieving par on a hole or round is considered a good result at Oakmont. A score of -4 in a single round would be exceptional. When betting or selecting players for fantasy contests, focus on golfers who are adept at managing the course and making pars, rather than those who rely on aggressive birdie hunting.
Let`s analyze the season`s third major championship.
My Betting Recommendations
Collin Morikawa to Finish in the Top 20 (+110)
For a betting strategy centered on precision, discipline, and high-level ball-striking, Morikawa is an excellent choice. Oakmont`s design minimizes the disadvantage of his shorter distance, and his performance on challenging courses (ranking fifth in Strokes Gained) indicates he excels in tough conditions. His fifth rank in approach shots and fourth in accuracy perfectly match the skills required at Oakmont.
While his 2025 season hasn`t featured many outright wins, he has shown quiet consistency with eight top-20 finishes in eleven tournaments. Morikawa consistently performs well under pressure. Although he might feel internal pressure, his game typically appears solid when playing conditions are difficult. If his short game is adequate, he should be a contender on Sunday.
Corey Conners to Finish in the Top 20 (+150)
Despite a T27 finish in Canada the previous week, Conners represents significant value in this field. He is among the top 10 in ball-striking, known for his accuracy, currently playing well, and his game is suited for Oakmont`s emphasis on precision over power.
He ranks 11th in driving accuracy and has gained strokes from tee to green in all but one event this year. His short game is his primary weakness, but his strong ball-striking is precisely the skill set needed to remain competitive when other players struggle. Conners might not produce spectacular shots, but he plays consistently. On a demanding course like Oakmont, consistency is frequently the key to success.
Keegan Bradley to Finish in the Top 20 (+260)
Bradley is currently one of the most effective players from tee to green in the field (ranking second over the past 32 rounds). His strong performance at the 2022 U.S. Open (finishing solo seventh) and his recent form (consecutive top-10s at the PGA Championship and the Memorial Tournament) indicate he possesses the necessary skills, provided his putting is adequate.
Bradley demonstrates ball-striking ability capable of winning tournaments, possesses an underestimated short game around the greens, and has odds that are much higher than his recent performance suggests they should be. Including him on your betting card, perhaps with a small outright bet at 75-1, is a reasonable high-reward play.
Analyzing Betting Options for Scottie Scheffler
To be frank, his odds are quite low: -150 for a Top 5 finish and +275 to win outright. However, this is justified. Scheffler`s strength is his exceptional performance in every aspect of the game; he essentially has no significant weaknesses.
No other player is currently performing at Scheffler`s level. The -150 odds are high, but fair, as Scheffler is a favorite who consistently delivers results.
If your budget allows, betting on Scheffler for a Top 5 finish is a solid, dependable addition to your betting card. He has achieved a top-five result in six of his last eight tournaments and leads the field in almost all key Strokes Gained statistics, such as Tee-to-Green and Approach. This wager is based on demonstrated consistency and current form, not just a hopeful guess.
If you prefer to get more value from your bet, consider alternatives like wagering on Scheffler to be the first-round leader at 12-1 odds, or waiting to bet on his Top 5 or outright win odds during live play if the price improves. Oakmont is a demanding course where players must manage their game and avoid mistakes, which could make a live betting approach viable. Betting on him to post the lowest score in the second round (after Round 1 concludes) is also a strong option, as Scheffler currently has the best scoring average in Round 2.
Unless you are using him as a cornerstone for a parlay bet or prioritizing safety from the outset, betting on Scheffler during live play might be a more strategic option, particularly given that other players offer more favorable odds for Top 20 finishes before the tournament begins.
And if he starts flawlessly and we miss the chance to bet at better odds? Then we can simply appreciate watching an exceptional performance unfold.
Why I`m Avoiding Betting on Jon Rahm
Initially, I considered strongly betting on Jon Rahm for a Top 10 finish (+130) and potentially an outright win (12-1), given his top-15 results at the Masters and PGA Championship. However, I`ve decided against it. A significant concern is that he lost strokes on approach shots in all four rounds at Augusta, which is unexpected for a player known for his ball-striking, particularly when the next course, Oakmont, places such a high premium on approach accuracy.
While he did perform better at the PGA Championship, that result seems like an isolated positive within a period that includes high finishes on the LIV tour, which may not be as competitive. Furthermore, betting on a Top 10 at +130 feels overpriced given the recent trends. Rahm`s play in recent PGA Tour events has shown signs of tension that make me hesitant. For a demanding course like Oakmont, players need composure, not the appearance of being on the verge of struggling under pressure.
